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Complete Report Now Available for Free Download

The complete version of IHS CERA's special report, Growth in Oil Sands: Finding the New Balance is now available for free download. To receive an electronic copy of the report, please complete the form below.

Overview

Few natural resource developments offer such a  large magnitude of potential benefts as  the Canadian oil sands,  the second  largest  reserves of  recoverable oil  in  the world after Saudi Arabia, but development also raises signifcant  long-term questions. This  is refected  in  the wide spectrum of views regarding the pace and future of oil sands development. Some argue for continued expansion, others for a slower pace or even halt to development. There are many stakeholders affected by oil sands development: local, provincial, and national governments; neighboring communities; investors; and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

The purpose of this CERA report is to offer a balanced assessment of the benefts, risks, and issues associated with oil sands development. This entails three specifc objectives.

• Inform. We explain the history of the oil sands and its place in the world oil market, and provide context for the oil sands debate across political, environmental, and technological dimensions.
• Illuminate. A number of critical, but controversial, issues will shape the future of the oil sands. Many of these issues defy simple, clear-cut explanations. We assess these issues by identifying what is known as well as areas of uncertainty.
• Illustrate. We present three scenarios that describe how the future of oil sands investment and attendant issues could evolve from 2009 to 2035. The scenarios are not an attempt to identify a singular path forward. The goal is to illustrate a range of implications based on
  different assumptions about how the future could unfold.

Report Process

This report draws on input received from a series of workshops in Calgary and Fort McMurray, Alberta; and Washington, DC, in 2008 and 2009. Representatives of government, oil companies, local communities, and NGOs attended  the workshops. CERA conducted our own extensive
research and analysis and made site visits to oil sands production facilities. CERA has full editorial control over this study and is solely responsible for the report’s contents.

Report Structure

This report has six chapters, including the Executive Summary.

• Executive  Summary. This  is  a  brief  summary  of  the  report,  including  CERA’s  Key Insights.
• Chapter  I: The Oil Sands Story. We explain  the history of  the oil sands, how they are produced, their role in the oil market, and how and why matters surrounding their future development  affect  critical  issues  facing  the world  today,  particularly  energy  security,
  climate change policy, environmental protection, and international trade and cooperation.
• Chapter II: The political and Social Context of Oil Sands development. This chapter describes the political and social issues that have an impact on oil sands development, including  the  US-Canada  relationship,  provincial  regulation  of  development,  and  First Nations rights.
• Chapter  III: Critical  Issues  for Oil  Sands development. This  chapter  identifes  and assesses critical areas of uncertainty or disagreement related to oil sands development. These issues include carbon emissions, water and land use, and the pace of technological advancement.
• Chapter Iv: Scenarios to 2035. The purpose and value of the scenario process is explained, and CERA’s three oil sands scenarios to 2035 are presented. Each scenario is based on a unique set of assumptions regarding key factors that will shape oil sands development and stakeholder interests. There is no “right” scenario, but taken together the scenarios provide a framework for exploring the implications of various development paths.
• Chapter v: Conclusion. Given the range of stakeholder interests, there is not a singular path forward  in  the  discussion  about  oil  sands  development.  But  a  shared  understanding  of the  issues,  potential  benefts,  and  challenges will  help  to move  the  debate  forward  in  a constructive manner. This is the unifying goal of Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands: Finding the New Balance.

Study Methodology

The objective of this study is to identify a range of plausible scenarios that could shape future oil sands development.

The methodology that CERA will use for Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands? Finding the New Balance is a combination of a consultative process through interactive workshops and CERA’s scenario framework and process. During the interactive workshops, study participants will identify the most critical factors affecting oil sands development and the pace of investment. CERA will then assess the set of issues facing all stakeholders affected by the pace of oil sands development across three scenarios.

The objective of this overall process of research, discussion, and analysis is the creation of a common framework that will contribute to broader understanding of oil sands development in the context of the overall energy security of North America, while acknowledging the economic, environmental, and social impacts of this resource.

The study process will not only help identify the facts on which all parties agree, but will also illuminate issues that lack consensus. The scenario process provides an analytical and neutral framework that will allow us to explore how these issues, as viewed from varying perspectives, could play out under different assumptions about the future.