For more details, please call Roberto Futuro at +33 (0) 1 42 44 10 22

Service Benefits

The service provides objective, independent research that can help your organization

• Understand energy market fundamentals and driving forces to provide a sound basis for gauging the possible future scenarios facing the power industry.
• Analyze regional market fundamentals, the changing fuel mix, and wholesale electricity price dynamics.
• Anticipate investment opportunities in new generation projects in Europe and potential effects on the market.
• Assess the impact of environmental regulations and policies on power market dynamics and strategies.
• Identify key structural changes arising from market liberalization in electricity markets and their implications for players’ strategies in each link of the value chain.

Research Themes: Big Questions

Members receive strategic reports that address questions of critical importance to the regional energy industry:

• When and how will the economic recovery reach the European power sector?
• Has Europe become a retirement-driven market, and is there a risk of stranded investment?
• How will European policymakers balance the policy trilemma: addressing security of supply, driving competitive markets, and achieving green aspirations?
• How will the European carbon market evolve, and how will it affect the business landscape?
• What are the challenges of integrating large quantities of intermittent renewables technologies into the European system?
• What are the prospects for clean power generation technologies?
• How will emerging technologies such as electric vehicles, smart grids, and batteries affect the power industry?

Recent Research

• Taking Up the Charge: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in Europe. Road transportation accounts for over 20 percent of the CO2 emissions in Europe. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are being discussed as a green alternative to the internal combustion engine. This technology not only would reduce emissions but could also provide energy diversity and allow Europe to reduce its dependence on oil. However it is not yet available, and its future in Europe hinges on a combination of policy, market, and technology elements.

• The Challenges of the French EU Presidency: Energy and Climate Change. The French presidency of the European Union will change the priorities of the European energy industry. Despite the recent interest in institutional issues such as ownership unbundling, the EU Council of June 6, 2008, opened the way for different institutional arrangements to be examined. The European Commission is still fiercely pushing for full ownership unbundling, but this is not expected to be a priority for the French presidency. Instead, the focus will shift to energy security and climate change, with climate change at the top of the agenda because of the strong political commitment from the French energy minister, Jean-Louis Borloo. The French presidency will likely involve trade-offs and concessions that might affect the political alliances inside the European Union.

• More Interconnectors for a Single European Power Market. European cross-border electric power connections are crucial in the building of a single European power market. National power systems are already technically interconnected, but they show some signs of vulnerability. More interconnections would improve the infrastructure, but any improvement will require a coordinated effort—and could present opportunities for merchant transmission.

• EU ETS Phase II Allowances Prices: Where’s the Floor? As Phase II of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) starts in 2008, we move from dress rehearsal to opening night. The European Commission has pushed to make the overall emissions cap much tighter than originally proposed by reducing the national allocations plans put forward by the participating governments.

Research Deliverables

The European analysis covers Western Europe, Central Europe, and Turkey.

Fundamentals Reports

The European analysis covers Western Europe, Central Europe, and Turkey.

• European Power Watch (twice per year). Insight on the key business trends and critical issues affecting the European power market through the
  • Focus on key strategic issues in the long term
  • Power price outlook and spreads to 2030
  • Europe-wide regulatory and policy developments; ETS; Renewables; Conventional fuels; Capacity additions and retirements; Margins and need for new capacity
  • European Scenario central view (demand, capacity additions and retirements, renewables)
• Market Briefing (Monthly). Outlook to 2015 for demand, supply, prices and country specific analysis
  • Demand, supply, prices, spreads and country specific analysis for 6 main power markets
  • Supply demand balance, capacity margins
  • Power plant retirements and additions (conventional and renewables)
  • Analysis of key regulatory, policy and market developments
• Country Profiles (annual). Outlooks to 2020. Analysis for EU 27 countries plus Turkey, Switzerland, and Norway
  • Short-term wholesale price projections
  • Supply-and-demand fundamentals developments
  • Industry structure and infrastructure
  • Environmental policies
• Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Market Briefing (quarterly)
  • EUA price forecasts to 2020 for Phase 2 (2008–12) and Phase 3 (post 2012)
  • Fuel price relativity and modeling assumptions
  • International Offset Supply Analysis; Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) outlook to 2020
  • Risks to price outlook
  • Stochastic Analysis
• European Carbon Market Tracker (monthly)
  • Monthly analysis of market behavior, fuel price relativity and fuel and power price correlation
  • ETS policy and regulatory developments
  • CO2 Emissions Tracker

Strategic Reports
Research driven by the service’s Big Questions, which have implications for corporate leaders, investors, government policymakers, and energy users. The answers to these questions will set the stage for the strategic future of the European power industry. Published as Private Reports and Decision Briefs.

Data Center

• Country‑level historical power supply, demand, capacity, and
  power exchange (twice per year)
• The IHS CERA CO2 Emissions Tracker (monthly)
• The IHS CERA Hydro Tracker (quarterly)
• Country-level power end-user prices (quarterly)
• Heating and cooling degree‑days (quarterly)

Phone Access to Research Staff

Events: Advisory Service members may participate in exclusive client gatherings fostering interaction among senior-level decision makers and IHS CERA experts. Membership includes seats at IHS CERA’s Executive Roundtables held each spring and fall. Clients may also attend CERAWeek, featuring IHS CERA’s Executive Conference and related events, held annually in Houston, for a reduced fee.