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Service Benefits

The service provides objective, independent research that can help your organization

• Understand energy market fundamentals and driving forces to provide a sound basis for gauging the possible future scenarios facing the European power industry.
• Analyze regional market fundamentals, the changing fuel mix, and wholesale electricity price dynamics.
• Anticipate investment opportunities in new generation projects in Europe and the potential effects on the market.
• Assess the impact of environmental regulations and policies on power market dynamics and strategies.
• Identify key structural changes arising from European market liberalization and integration and the implications for players’ strategies in each link of the value chain.

Research Themes: Big Questions

Members receive strategic reports that address questions of critical importance to the regional energy industry:

• How has the economic downturn affected the power sector, and does it create opportunities, risks, or both?
• Will the drive for market integration continue, and how much new transmission capacity will get built?
• What are the winning strategies and models for the European policy trilemma: security of supply, competitive markets, and green targets?
• How will the European carbon market evolve, and how will it affect the business landscape?
• What are the challenges of integrating large quantities of intermittent renewables technologies into the European system?
• What are the prospects for clean power generation technologies?
• How will the countervailing forces of energy efficiency mandates and new electricity uses affect power growth?

Recent Research

• Taking Up the Charge: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in Europe. Road transportation accounts for over 20 percent of the CO₂ emissions in Europe. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are being discussed as a green alternative to the internal combustion engine. This technology not only would reduce emissions but could also provide energy diversity and allow Europe to reduce its dependence on oil. However it is not yet available, and its future in Europe hinges on a combination of policy, market, and technology elements.
• Life Begins at 40? Delaying European Plant Retirements.
  European power plants are aging, and the general outlook is that new plants will be needed to replace retiring plants in the coming decade. IHS CERA’s analysis shows, however, that both the regulatory and economic drivers of power plant retirements are more uncertain than ever and that far fewer plants could be retired than is currently expected.
• More Interconnectors for a Single European Power Market. European cross-border electric power connections are crucial in the building of a single European power market. National power systems are already technically interconnected, but they show some signs of vulnerability. More interconnections would improve the infrastructure, but any improvement will require a coordinated effort—and could present opportunities for merchant transmission.

• European CO₂ Trading Scheme: Market Outlook. This Decision Brief details IHS CERA’s assessment of the supply-demand balance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Our analysis and price projections indicate that annual prices could climb from €13 per metric ton of carbon dioxide (tCO2) in 2009 to €22 per tCO2 in 2020, subject to a significant range of uncertainty.

Research Deliverables

The European analysis covers over 36 counties including Western Europe, Central Europe, the Balkans, the Nordics, the Baltics, and Turkey.

Market Fundamentals Reports

• European Power Watch (twice per year). Insight on the key business trends and critical issues affecting the European power market through a
  • Focus on key strategic issues in the long term
  • Power price outlook and spreads to 2030
  • Europe-wide regulatory and policy developments; ETS; renewables; conventional fuels; capacity additions and retirements; margins; and need for new capacity
  • European Scenario central view (demand, capacity additions and retirements, renewables)
• Market Briefing (quarterly). Outlook to 2015 for demand, supply, prices and country-specific analysis
  • Power and ETS prices, spreads and analysis for major markets
  • Supply-demand balance, capacity margins
  • Power plant retirements and additions (conventional and renewables)
  • Analysis of key regulatory, policy, and market developments
• Country Profiles (annual). Outlooks to 2020. Analysis for EU27 countries plus Turkey, Switzerland, and Norway
  • Short-term wholesale price projections
  • Supply-and-demand fundamentals developments
  • Industry structure and infrastructure
  • Environmental policies
• Emissions Trading Scheme Market Briefing (quarterly)
  • EUA price forecasts to 2020 for Phase 2 (2008–12) and Phase 3 (post 2012)
  • Fuel price relativity and modeling assumptions
  • International Offset Supply Analysis; Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI) outlook to 2020
  • Risks to price outlook
  • Stochastic Analysis
• European Carbon Market Tracker (monthly)
  • Monthly analysis of market behavior, fuel price relativity, and fuel and power price correlation
  • ETS policy and regulatory developments
  • CO₂ Emissions Tracker

Strategic Reports
Research driven by the service’s Big Questions, which have implications for corporate leaders, investors, government policymakers, and energy users. The answers to these questions will set the stage for the strategic future of the European power industry. Delivered as Private Reports and Decision Briefs.

Data Center

• Country‑level historical power supply, demand, capacity, and
  power exchange (twice per year)
• The IHS CERA CO₂ Emissions Tracker (quarterly)
• The IHS CERA Hydro Tracker (quarterly)
• Country-level power end-user prices (quarterly)
• Heating and cooling degree‑days (quarterly)

Phone access to research staff including country experts for 36 countries

Events: Advisory Service members may participate in exclusive client gatherings fostering interaction among senior-level decision makers and IHS CERA experts. Membership includes seats at IHS CERA’s Executive Roundtables, held each spring and fall. Members may also attend CERAWeek, featuring IHS CERA’s Executive Conference and related events, held annually in Houston, for a reduced fee.