For more details, please call Richard Morris at +1 617 866 5121

Service Benefits

The service provides objective, independent research that can help your organization

• Understand global oil market fundamentals to provide a sound basis for gauging the possible scenarios facing the oil industry.
• Anticipate the implications for changes in crude oil prices for upstream investment profitability, as well as opportunities and risks for trading and hedging decisions.
• Analyze the interactions between crude oil and petroleum products markets and assess the effect on regional products prices and refinery margins.
• Identify the regional and geopolitical factors affecting access to upstream opportunities, reserves replacement, and fiscal terms.
• Recognize how corporate strategy will be viewed by host governments, prospective partners, and other stakeholders.
• Weigh how international oil companies, national oil companies, and host governments can cooperate to optimize production as well as private and public wealth.

Future Research Themes: Big Questions

Members receive strategic reports that address questions of critical importance to the oil industry:

• Have the recession and oil market downturn opened a new era of opportunity for E&P companies?
• Is the oil price collapse setting the stage for a potential spike in oil prices in coming years?
• How will climate change policies affect oil industry investment?
• What are the limits to oil demand growth?
• How will the future portfolio of transportation fuels evolve?

Recent Research

• Filling the Hopper: Production Capacity to 2020. The adequacy and reliability of current and future oil supply remains an important concern in a volatile oil market. However, a tight market is not preordained—particularly in light of the demand-side response to high prices. It is true that high costs, tight service markets, and political and security factors have slowed the rate of supply growth. The “hopper” of new and existing development projects is robust and expanding.
• The Changing Composition of the Barrel: A Moving Target Through2020. This Private Report presents CERA’s view of the evolution of worldwide crude and condensate quality. The objective is to provide the refining industry with a better understanding of the feedstock qualities and quantities that will be available in major markets through 2020? Will the worldwide crude and condensate mix improve in quality in the near term and then decline by 2020? What is the role of heavy oil in the promise for supply growth in the medium to long term? Will refineries need to make adjustments to accept a variety of crude slates?
• Ratcheting Down: Oil and the Global Credit Crisis. The massive injection of state capital into banks in the United States and Europe is another step toward a new balance between the power of the state and the market. Government is taking over the “commanding heights” of the financial industry in an attempt to avoid a severe and prolonged economic recession.
• The Problem with Labels: Why the Term National Oil CompanyMay Tell Us Less Rather than More. Labels can serve a valuable function by simplifying vocabulary, but they can also outlive their usefulness and even mislead. Although there is little ambiguity about what defines an international oil company (IOC), national oil companies—often referred to as NOCs—defy such neat labels. Even as the range of acronyms to describe these companies grows, the diversity of missions and strategies expands. Negotiating with any oil company based on its unique characteristics—rather than lumping it into an industry segment—is critical for success.

Research Deliverables

Fundamentals Reports
IHS CERA’s integrated view of the global crude and refined products landscape, anticipating world oil market developments and trends over the next one to two years

• World Oil Watch (quarterly)
• Market Briefings (eight per year)
• World Refined Products Outlook (quarterly)

Strategic Reports
Driven by the service’s Big Questions, which have implications for corporate leaders, investors, government policymakers, and energy users. The answers to these questions will set the stage for future strategy in the industry. These reports are delivered as Private Reports and Decision Briefs.

Data Center

• Crude oil price scenarios through 2030--WTI, Dated Brent and Dubai (monthly)
• Global refined product price scenarios to 2020 (monthly)
• Demand, Supply, and Refinery Operations
  • Global Supply and Demand Balances by Region and Product
  • GDP Outlook by Region
  • Liquid Productive Capacity by Region
  • Refinery Operations
  • Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices
  • Refined Product Margins
  • Historical OPEC Production
• Crude and Refined Product Inventory Statistics

Access to research staff

Multimedia conference calls to help members interpret key trends and market developments

Events: Advisory Service members may participate in exclusive client gatherings fostering interaction among senior-level decision makers and IHS CERA experts. Membership includes seats at IHS CERA’s Executive Roundtables, held each spring and fall. Clients may also attend CERAW^_EEK , featuring IHS CERA’s Executive Conference and related events, held annually in Houston, for a reduced fee.