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The service provides objective, independent research that can help your organization
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Understand the energy market and political issues to provide a sound basis for gauging the future possible scenarios facing the region
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Anticipate the influence of regulatory issues on regional energy production and exports
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Identify the driving forces in the Eurasian gas business and track the gas flows from Central Asian and Russian gas fields to Europe’s borders
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Understand the priorities and concerns of current or potential partners
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Develop strategies for mitigating risk in a quickly changing business environment
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Members receive strategic reports that address questions of critical importance to companies in the region:
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Will foreign investors confront fewer restrictions on participation in the Russian oil and gas sector?
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Will the new plateau in Russian oil production be sustainable over the longer term?
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What is the long-term outlook for Russian-Ukrainian ga relations?
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Caspian gas to export markets: how much and how quickly?
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How much new export capacity is actually needed for Caspian oil?
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What are the long-term implications of global gas trends for Russian gas strategy?
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The ‘Great Recession’ and Demand for Russian Gas: It Is Not as Bad as It Looks. Demand for Russian gas at home and abroad shrank dramatically as a result of the “Great Recession,” forcing Russia to cut its gas production by 18.3 percent in January–September 2009 (or by 80.2 billion cubic meters). Demand destruction is not sufficient to explain the magnitude of the deliveries decline. Particular short-term circumstances in export and domestic markets help clarify the mystery of the lost volumes. Russia’s gas export bolumes are expected to partially recover. Domestic gas consumption volumes also are expected to rebound. The increases already planned for regulated gas prices in Russia probably will not significantly impede the recovery of domestic gas demand.
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Investor Interest in the Caspian Region Continues Postcrisis. The economic crisis has buffeted the countries of the Caspian region, with aggregate regional gross domestic product (GDP) declining in 2009 to -2 percent from growth of approximately 7.2 percent in 2008. Gas production and exports have dropped and some project timetables have slipped. But IHS CERA expects the economic situation in the region to stabilize somewhat in 2010, with aggregate regional GDP potentially rising by about 3 percent. As the dust begins to settle, it is clear that the dramatic changes in 2009 will shape export and production trends for the coming years.
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Out of the Woods Yet? The Emerging Postcrisis Russian Energy Investment Landscape. The Russian economy may have hit bottom in the third quarter, but there are still several worrisome trends complicating Russia’s economic recovery. One important lesson that Russian authorities appear to have drawn from the crisis is that severe weaknesses revealed in Russia’s private sector during the downturn are in large part the result of excessive state intervention in the economy. Upstream challenges may short-circuit record-level Russian oil production and exports. The sharpness of the 2009 contraction in demand for Russian gas (and gas production as well) was due in part to special circumstances beyond the economic crisis.
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Russian Oil Production Approaches 10 Million Barrels per Day, but Can Momentum Be Maintained? In August 2009 Russia’s average daily oil production level reached a new post-Soviet record of 9.93 million barrels per day. The relatively positive industry performance overall so far this year—through the first eight months production was up 0.5 percent year on year—looks likely to reverse to a similar slight production drop in 2008. The trend of rising oil output is all the more remarkable against the backdrop of Russia’s worst economic crisis since the 1990s. The uptick in Russian oil production this year was driven chiefly by a combination of circumstances that favor slight crude output growth in the short term but cannot sustain such growth for more than a few years.
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Fundamentals Reports
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Integrated Russian and Caspian Watches featuring medium-term outlook for drivers of oil, gas, power, and investment issues published three times annually: twice with a Russian focus, once with a Caspian focus.
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Eurasian Gas Export Outlooks: Data model, updated semiannually, detailing gas production, consumption, and exports from Russia and the Caspian region, including
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Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
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Exports east and west
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Outlooks to 2030
Strategic Reports
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Research driven by the service’s Big Questions, which have implications for corporate leaders, investors, government policymakers, and energy users. The answers to these questions will set the stage for the strategic future of the industry. Published as Private Reports and Decision Briefs.
Data Center
Access to research staff
Multimedia conference calls to help members interpret key trends and market developments
Events: Advisory Service members may participate in exclusive client gatherings fostering interaction among senior-level decision makers and IHS CERA experts. Membership includes seats at IHS CERA’s Executive roundtables held each spring and fall. Clients may also attend CERAWEEK , featuring IHS CERA’s Executive Conference and related events, held annually in Houston, for a reduced fee.
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